*And Despite Expectations* *Abdel Moez Hussein Makabrabi* #The American Strategy in Sudan… What Lie Beyond the Constant and After the Moving (A Reading of Possible Narratives..!)

“The philosophical narrative in the science of strategic epistemology as a text is: Read history to extract what is beyond the constant, and contemplate the future to deduce what is after the moving.”_

There is a fixed American strategy in Sudan that has not changed since 1956… and there is a moving tactic that changes every 4 years… He who does not understand the constant will drown in the moving.

*First: What is the American constant in Sudan? Three constants that do not change whether Trump, Biden, or Harris rules:*

*Constant One: Sudan must not be a strong state.*
America does not want Sudan completely divided, because division creates chaos it cannot control… nor does it want it strong and united, because a strong, united state at the junction of the Red Sea, the Nile, and the desert will become the gateway to Africa and the Arab world.

What America wants is a *(fragile Sudan… united in form… divided in function)*… a weak army… an economy dependent on aid… and warring political elites who seek legitimacy from Washington, not from their people.

And this is what America implemented with excellence from 1956 to 2019… it supported the war in the South until it seceded… and supported the Darfur movements until they took up arms… and supported the FF C document until it created two armies.

*Constant Two: Sudan’s resources must remain raw.*
America does not want a uranium factory in the Northern State… nor a pharmaceutical gum arabic factory in Gedaref… nor a gold factory in Khartoum.

Why? Because the law of the American economy says: Raw materials must be cheap in Africa… and industry expensive in America.

*Look at the map:* America takes uranium from Niger raw at $80 per kilo… and sells it as nuclear electricity for $8000. And it takes gum arabic from Sudan at $2000 per ton… and sells it as medicine for $40,000.

For this reason, every American strategy in Sudan aims to prevent manufacturing, under bright slogans: protecting the environment… rights of indigenous peoples… transparency… while the goal is for the mine to remain primitive.

*Constant Three: The Red Sea is an American red line.*
Sudan has 750 km on the Red Sea… which is the most important corridor in the world… 12% of world trade passes through Bab al-Mandab.

America does not allow Russia to build a base in Port Sudan… nor does it allow China to control the port… nor does it allow Sudan itself to be strong at sea.

For this reason, America always creates a war in the East… whenever Sudan comes close to signing a port agreement with another party… the Beja sedition appears… and slogans of marginalization of the East appear. These are the three constants… they do not change.

*Second: What is the American moving? And here comes the new IMPACT law H.R 10795:*

The moving part is the tools… once with sanctions… once with aid… once with democracy… once with terrorism.

– In the nineties, the moving was “Sudan is a state sponsoring terrorism”… and the goal was to prevent Sudan from exporting oil.
– In the 2000s, the moving was “Darfur genocide”… and the goal was to bring in the ICC and divide Darfur.
– In 2019: The moving was “civilian democratic transition”… and the goal was to create two armies and weaken the national army.
– In 2026: The new moving is “Partnership in Minerals and Agriculture IMPACT”…

Same constants… with a new soft tool.

Instead of saying: we punish you… they say: we help you… we give you tractors… and geological survey technologies… in exchange for taking uranium, gold, oil and gum.

And instead of saying: your government is illegitimate… they say in the text of the law: “We will not start the partnership unless the US Secretary of State decides that your civilian authority is legitimate and has protected civilians.” To bring back the FF C government through the window of incentives.

*What is beyond the constant and after the moving? Three possible narratives:*

*Narrative One: The Trap Narrative… (which is closest to the American constant):*
America wants to sign a uranium and gold agreement at a cheap price… under an agricultural cover… then tie implementation to the condition of “the civilian authority that we approve of”… If the army refuses the condition… America says Sudan refuses development… and the siege continues… And if the army accepts… America will have determined who rules Sudan… And this is the stripping of national will that Prof. Mohamed Hussein Abu Saleh warned against.

*Narrative Two: The Great Conflict Narrative… (America vs. China and Russia):*
This law did not come by chance… it came one month after Sudan signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia on a naval base… and after a Chinese delegation visited to explore chrome mines in the Red Sea.

America now wants to say to Russia and China: Sudan is our market… uranium is ours… gold is ours… and tractors are from us… so don’t come close.

So the law is not out of love for Sudan… but a card in the game of the great powers.

*Narrative Three: The Sudanese Opportunity Narrative… (If we had a strategic mind):*
And this narrative is what the Sudanese dreamed of when Strategy 2031 was developed… and it said: Sudan can feed 400 million people.

How do we turn the trap into an opportunity?

We do not sign for any raw mineral… we sign for manufactured mineral… We tell America: You want uranium? Build us a peaceful nuclear reactor to generate electricity for peaceful purposes in Merowe… You want gold? Build us a gold refinery in Khartoum… You want gum? Build us a pharmaceutical factory in Gedaref.

And we do not allow the US Secretary of State to determine our legitimacy… We determine our legitimacy with a Sudanese constitutional court… as we said in the articles on the constitutional court… it is the one that says: This clause is void because it affects sovereignty… it is cancelled.

And we play on the contradiction of the great powers… We tell America, Russia and China: Whoever manufactures for us inside Sudan… we give him… And whoever wants raw… has no place… And this is the pinnacle of strategic thinking that creates the future in light of a complex and feverish strategic conflict.

The American strategy is constant: a fragile Sudan… its resources raw… and its sea neutral.
And its tactic is moving: today its name is IMPACT… tomorrow it may be called GREEN SUDAN… or DEMOCRACY MINERALS.

So he who understands the constant… is not deceived by the moving.

For this reason, the military battle of Um Dafuq is a decisive force for the logic of sovereign negotiation on the ground… and the legal battle has begun in the form of incentives, which is what is being proposed now… the battle of who writes the resources law? And if it is written by brokers of organizations and funded civil society associations… IMPACT will become a new agreement to divide Sudan… but this time… dividing it mine by mine… not state by state.

For wealth is sovereignty… and sovereignty is not granted by Washington… but is seized by Khartoum.

*…And they plot, and Allah is the best of plotters.*