Face of Truth | Ibrahim Shaglawi … Only days separate us from the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam..!
Face of Truth | Ibrahim Shaglawi
Only days separate us from the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam..!
As the countdown to the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) begins, the region anticipates transformations that may redraw the map of development and water security in the Nile Basin. The project, which has occupied the region since 2011, now emerges as a tangible reality that cannot be ignored, with a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters and an electricity generation capacity estimated at 5,000 megawatts.
This project, which has long been the subject of political and technical controversy between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia, today opens a new window for integrative opportunities, in addition to real water-related challenges that require effective strategies from downstream countries.
Ethiopia has announced the completion of construction and intends to invite Sudan and Egypt to attend the inauguration this September, marking a new phase in the water crisis in East Africa. After years of debate over the possibility of halting the project, it has become clear that the dam is now an established reality, requiring a redefinition of policies and maximization of benefits, rather than mere reliance on traditional stances.
Egypt still insists on the necessity of a binding legal agreement to regulate the filling and operation of the dam to preserve its historical share of Nile water, while Sudan faces a more complex equation due to its geographical location between the source and the mouth of the river. The risks associated with the absence of a water coordination agreement remain, especially during years of drought, prolonged drought, or sudden flows. However, in return, Sudan’s potential benefits from the dam appear to be significant—if properly utilized.
Prominent Sudanese experts, such as Dr. Othman Al-Tom and Dr. Saif Al-Din Hamad, confirm that the dam can reduce silt by up to 70% in the Roseires and Sennar dams, limit seasonal flooding, and improve water storage in Sudanese dams. Moreover, the proximity of the Ethiopian power generation stations to the states of Sennar, Gedaref, and the Blue Nile—which suffer from unstable electricity supply—enables Sudan to import electricity at preferential prices that support agricultural and industrial development in these promising states, and potentially across all Sudanese states via the national grid.
One of the most common concerns is the possibility of the dam collapsing. However, this hypothesis lacks strong scientific evidence, especially since its design has undergone international reviews and was implemented by specialized companies such as the Italian firm Salini, with the participation of technical personnel from Sudan and Egypt during the monitoring phases. Is it realistic, then, for Sudan’s position to be based on a potential failure scenario without practical alternatives?
What is required today is for Sudan to move from the role of cautious observer to that of active negotiator, through the construction of a network of shared interests with Ethiopia. The expansion of electrical interconnection could serve as a practical example of this, as the current capacity of 100–250 megawatts can be gradually increased to 1,000 megawatts. This expansion necessitates regular exchange of technical information regarding operations, thereby enhancing trust and paving the way for sustainable cooperation away from political tensions.
As for the relationship with Egypt, it is a geographical, historical, and security necessity that cannot be overlooked, but it is important to distinguish between coordination and subordination. Sudan’s interests are not identical to Egypt’s: while Cairo fears for its water share, Sudan primarily needs to regulate flows and improve its capabilities in energy and agricultural expansion.
Sudan possesses promising development opportunities that could benefit the peoples of all three countries if the dam is employed in strategic plans aimed at expanding agricultural land and developing energy-dependent industries. The land is available, water could become more regular, and electricity is accessible. Meanwhile, Egypt possesses solid agricultural reform expertise, and Ethiopia has hydropower generation capacity. If these elements are combined, they could form a genuine basis for regional integration.
However, what raises concern is the absence of Sudanese political and media elites from this critical and attentive discussion. Silence surrounds an issue that could serve as a launching point for sustainable development across entire states and become an economic lever amid the exceptional circumstances the country is facing.
With the official inauguration this month, Sudan will be presented with two options: either to actively engage in managing the new phase through cooperation and joint initiatives, or to remain hostage to reactive responses, with all the potential losses that may entail.
According to #Face_of_Truth, the opportunity still exists, but it is eroding over time. What is needed is an honest technical dialogue and smart diplomacy capable of turning the crisis into an opportunity. Nations are not built on hesitation, nor are they managed through reservations. The inauguration of the Renaissance Dam is not merely an Ethiopian celebration, but rather a pivotal moment for redrawing the future of water and development in the region. If Sudan handles this moment well, it may find in the dam a true lever for its renaissance.
Wishing you all well and good health.
Saturday, September 6, 2025
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